How does the awkward situation at both ends, where enterprises have difficulty in making loans and banks lack projects, manage to emerge and how can it be solved?

According to recent financial data and actual surveys, there is a tendency to intensify中小企貸款 problems such as insufficient demand for effective credit from enterprises and residents in China. This is the result of a complex combination of internal and external factors, but also related to the current macro policy. We attach great importance to the problem of insufficient effective credit demand and take practical measures to enhance market confidence, stabilize expectations, stimulate demand and promote economic and social stability.

Although the first quarter of 2022 to improve the overall design of China’s 私人貸款利息economic and financial market data for better performance capabilities, but the hidden worries need our attention. Data analysis shows that the risk of RMB bank loans increased by 3.13 trillion yuan in March, of which an enterprise provides loans to companies added 2.48 trillion yuan, an additional 880 billion yuan year-on-year, but there can still be some problems from the social structure. In the enterprise through the loan increment, short-term capital loans and bills financing method added 808.9 billion yuan and 318.7 billion yuan, respectively, year-on-year growth of 434.1 billion yuan and 471.2 billion yuan more respectively. In other words, the year-over-year increase in business development loans mainly includes the impulse from short-term loans and note financing in China. In contrast, reflecting the expectations and confidence of small and medium-sized enterprises to achieve the corporate culture of medium and long-term loans added 1,344.8 billion yuan, only 14.8 billion yuan more than last year, basically the same as last year. At the same time, in March, residents for short-term loans, medium and long-term loans students reached an increase of 384.8 billion yuan, 373.5 billion yuan, respectively, 139.4 billion yuan and 250.4 billion yuan less than a year ago, weaker across the board. This shows that both technical enterprises for or rural residents of credit products demand, are showing a contraction.

On April 30, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released data from the National Bureau of Statistics Service Survey Center. in April, the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) was 47.4% , down 2.1 percentage points from March, and overall manufacturing confidence continued to decline. The manufacturing PMI was below the growth-shrinkage line for the second consecutive month, indicating a further acceleration of contraction in the real economy. The China Economic Information Service, China’s national news agency, conducted a survey of micro and small enterprises in eighteen industries in thirty-one provinces and released the Financial Inclusion Micro Index, which showed that fifty-seven percent of micro and small enterprises experienced a decline in sales in the first quarter, with twenty-seven percent experiencing a significant decline in sales, up nearly twelve percent from the fourth quarter of last year, while sixty-two percent experienced a decline in revenue, with only nine and a quarter percent of micro and small enterprises income growth.

For some time now, especially after the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia,延期年金 the problem of insufficient effective credit demand from enterprises and residents has begun to emerge and is now tending to intensify further. There are many reasons for this.

From the point of view of the external social environment, the impact is analyzed mainly through the main factors of two important aspects of internationalist political and economic development. Political education, the crisis in Ukraine intensified, geopolitical and cultural conflicts intensified, oil, copper and aluminum and other commodities to carry out the price can rise rapidly. In the first quarter, the average price of crude oil, refined oil and natural gas imports in China rose by 56.1%, 37.4% and 78% respectively compared to the same period last year. Affected by this, the issue of raw material prices in related technology industries has seen a round of significant increases, aggravating the cost of operating activities of mid- and downstream enterprises managing production companies. Due to the international tension in China, the international financial market information demand reduction, superimposed on the cost of shipping to maintain a high level of operation, resulting in some industries and their upstream and downstream small and medium enterprises service exports decreased, orders decline.

On the economic front, the United States and other developed economies have initiated a cycle of interest rate hikes and increased volatility in the international financial markets, which has affected the healthy development of China’s financial markets. Specifically, this will affect China in three ways: continued interest rate hikes in the U.S. will narrow the interest rate differential between China and the U.S., which may lead to capital outflows; interest rate hikes and cuts may increase the adjustment of U.S. stocks. Further exacerbating the volatility of China’s capital markets, if the U.S. accelerates the tightening process, it will lead to greater turbulence in global financial markets, which may affect China’s financial stability. In recent years, China’s stock market has experienced a unilateral decline, with a shrinking direct financing function and a lack of investor confidence, which has affected the expectations of enterprises and residents.

In terms of the internal environment, the impact of repeated major epidemics and policy tightening. As for the epidemic, it has spread in many places so far this year, and cities in economic centers such as Shanghai have been under static management for a long time. Most businesses have closed. It has affected the stability of the national industrial chain and supply chain, and some localities have adopted overly strict control measures, resulting in market segmentation, poor logistics, difficulties in production and operation of enterprises, job instability for residents, and lower income. Under such circumstances, market participants have become more cautious about increasing investment and expanding production, and residents’ willingness and ability to consume have been declining.

On the policy side, some industries and enterprises are affected by policy adjustments, and credit demand is suppressed and difficult to release. For example, since last year, real estate development enterprises in the financing “three red lines” below the normal financing needs are not met; personal housing loans by the “window guidance”, loans are difficult, expensive, slow loans and other phenomena. Although the real estate financial policy has been adjusted this year, but the market demand is difficult to recover in the short term. Although some overcapacity and “three high” industry has a strong demand for financing, but by macro policy constraints, financial institutions can not make effective investment, expressed as a structural shortage of credit demand.

From the objective point of view, due to the rapid expansion of non-financial enterprises in the past period, some enterprises’ leverage ratio is already at a high level, and there is not much room to continue to increase debt. Under the dual pressure of the spread of the epidemic and the economic downturn, financial institutions’ risk appetite has dropped and they are cautious about expanding credit allocation, leading to the phenomenon of insufficient effective credit demand and the coexistence of financing problems for SMEs.

Insufficient analysis of effective credit market demand is not such a minor problem, if the serious shortage of enterprise demand leads to a “credit collapse”, it will likely affect the expected growth targets of China’s economic development and the overall stability of social work throughout the year. The next step should be to take practical and effective measures to reverse the trend of increased shortage of effective credit business demand as soon as possible.

First, coordinate and balance the relationship between the prevention and control of the epidemic and the continuous development of the economy, as soon as possible through the reduction of corporate epidemic prevention and control to the economy and people’s livelihood issues that cause excessive impact. To follow the requirements of the April 29 meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, according to the new characteristics of the relevant virus to carry out mutations and spread, under the premise of effective prevention and control of the epidemic, flexible can be appropriate to adjust the prevention and control policy management measures, adhere to the comprehensive legal prevention and control, scientific prevention and control, to put an end to unauthorized closure of highway entrances, illegal behavior set a market environment access, disregard for people’s livelihood “one size fits all “and other unreasonable major measures to minimize the impact of economic construction socialist development due to the epidemic.

Second, the macro policy is super conventional, ahead of the market curve, which is conducive to the relief of market players and the steady recovery of the real economy. The current market sentiment is very low, and the confidence of market players is seriously damaged. We should take more resolute and powerful measures in a timely and decisive manner, and put in more hardship and efforts. In terms of monetary policy, we should be more active and positive, increase cross-cycle and counter-cyclical adjustments, continue to lower the deposit reserve ratio and interest rates at the right time, and better play the role of structural monetary policy tools. Stabilize growth more prominently.

Third, maintain policy stability, reduce policy uncertainty, strengthen market communication, guide market expectations, enhance confidence and stimulate demand. “Confidence is more important than gold”. By continuously adjusting macro policies, especially fiscal policy, monetary policy and real estate policy, a superimposed effect is generated to restore and enhance market participants’ expectations and confidence in the future, stimulating market investment demand and boosting consumer demand. There should be sufficient communication and policy measures to release policy signals before new policies are released or original policies are adjusted.

Financial institutions should further strengthen their social responsibility, reasonably optimize the allocation of financial resources, appropriately adjust credit systems and processes to better meet the needs of the real economy, especially those industries more affected by the epidemic, and increase efforts to reduce fees and make benefits and solve difficulties for market participants, especially small and micro enterprises and individual business owners.

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